US Edition

Wall Street JournalTuesday, 5 May 2026

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Most—Except a Few Sharks—Lose on Prediction Markets

Neil Mehta, Katherine Long and Caitlin Ostroff
How they framed it

The paper uses data and individual trader anecdotes to illustrate that prediction markets heavily favor sophisticated professional traders over retail participants.

Context

Prediction markets like Polymarket have surged in popularity for betting on political and world events, raising questions about market fairness and the financial risks to amateur participants.

Striking phrase

Except a Few Sharks

MostSharksLosePredictionMarkets
Editorial Stance
← LeftCentreRight →
Cautious on retail finance trends
Toneanalytical and cautionary
Reader emotioncuriosity
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